Tenth Annual
International Conference
of the
The
Society For Chaos Theory in Psychology & Life Sciences
University of Pennsylvania.
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
July 20-23, 2000
Fri, 9:00AM
Experimental Psych (Track A)
Oscillator Asymmetries in Perception-Action
Coordination
Daniel
Russell, Penn State Berks-Lehigh Valley College,dmr18@psu.edu
D. Sternad,
The Pennsylvania State University
Oscillator
asymmetries in the Haken, Kelso and Bunz (1985) coupled oscillator model
(HKB-model) have been represented as the arithmetic difference between the
eigenfrequency of the oscillators, delta. The HKB-model predicts that
increasing the magnitude of delta leads to greater phase deviation and
decreased stability. These predictions have been supported in human movement
for inter-limb and inter-actor coordination. However, recent investigation of
coordination between an actor and perceptual target failed to show a systematic
relationship between delta and relative phase (Russell & Sternad,
submitted). This study investigated the hypothesis that phase deviations from
asymmetries between actor and target were overcome due to the provision of
error information in displaying continuous on-line visual feedback of the
participant’s movements with the target. Participants tracked sinusoidal
targets of five different frequencies (0.6, 0.8, 1.0, 1.2, 1.4Hz) swinging one
of three pendulums (eigenfrequencies 0.8, 1.0, 1.2, 1.4Hz) swinging one of
three pendulums (eigenfrequencies 0.8, 1.0, 1.2Hz) in their dominant hand.
Tracking of the visual target was performed with continuous on-line visual
feedback of the pendulum position (VF), and without (NVF). In support of the
HKB-model predictions, both VF and NVF led to a U-shaped relationship between
delta and the variability of relative phase. With VF no relationship between
delta and relative phase was observed, replicating the previous findings
(Russell & Sternad, submitted). In contrast, for NVF relative phase
increased with delta, conforming to the HKB-model predictions. This result
supports that oscillator properties underlie actor coordination with a
perceptual target, but oscillator asymmetries can be overcome through
simultaneous visual feedback of the actor’s performance.
Fri, 9:00AM
Economics (B)
Chaos in the Dynamics of the Exchange Rate
with Infinite Historical Memory
Christiana
Mammana,University of Macerata, cmamman@tin.it
Elisabetta
Michetti,University of Macerata
Dornbusch’s model
represents a simple macroeconomic model which illustrates the hypereactivity of
the exchange rate at variations of the money stock under the hypothesis that
both the exchange market and the monetary one will set faster than the goods
market and that the economical agents will be able to forecast the future level
of the change itself. While maintaining the first hypothesis, we refuse that of
pure prediction. The idea of revising the function of expectations within
Dornbusch’s model has already been put forward by De Grauwe et al., who have
introduced , in the non-linear version of Dornbusch’s exchange rate model, a
previsional mechanism, which can be seen as forward looking, as it estimates
the shifting between current exchange and long term equilibrium level, and as
backward looking, as it takes into consideration a three-term floating mean of
the exchange rate levels observed in the past. Starting from the version of
Dornbusch’s model given by De Grauwe et al., we are introducing a different
form of distributed historical memory, which associates to the backward
component an infinite memory process through arithmetic mean of the system past
states with exponentially decreasing weights in correspondence with to remoter
observations. The study of such a discrete dynamical model is not a simple one
because of the non-autonomy of the map explaining its evolution. We have now
overcome such an obstacle by transforming the non-autonomous unidimensional map
into a bidimensional autonomous system whose dynamics are to be found on a
autonomous limit map.
Fri, 9:20AM
Experimental Psych (A)
The Extended
Return Map: a New Method to Analyze the Nonlinear Dynamics of
Inter-response-intervals in Operant Conditioning Studies
Jay-Shake
Li, University of Düsseldorf, lijay@uni-duesseldorf.de
The
Skinner-box is a paradigm for testing the operant behavior of animals. In a
small cage animals are trained to show certain behavior (for example: pressing
a lever) in order to earn rewards, such as food pellets. While most traditional
studies have used averaged data, such as responses per minute or per trial to
interpret their results, the nonlinear approaches were concentrated mainly on
the analysis of inter-response-intervals (IRIs). To reconstruct out of IRIs a
multi-dimensional map analog to the phase diagram, a method called return map
can be used. Previous application of the return map on operant data indicated
some promise of this approach. However, the complexity of the system seemed to
demand improvement of the analyzing ability of this tool. Therefore, I modified
the original definition and developed the extended return map. Instead of using
single IRI directly, we first calculated the summation of several IRIs and then
used them to plot the map. For example, the two-dimensional drawing of the
extended return map is a plot of summation of L data: [I(t) + I(t+1) +....+
I(t+L-1)] against summation of the next L data: [I(t+L) + I(t+L+1) +....+
I(t+2L-1)]. Here I(t) is the t-th IRIs recorded in the experiment; L is a new
parameter we introduced to characterize the features of the extended return
map. We call L the fold of the extended return map. Application of the extended
return map in Skinner-box experiments on rats showed clearly identifiable
structures. The summation step in our new method worked like a low pass filter.
The short-term fluctuations in the time series data are suppressed, thus
enhancing the long-term changes.
Fri, 9:20AM
Economics (B)
Computer
Simulation Of An Insurance Company
Vladislav B Kovchegov, Horizon Blue Cross
Blue Shield of NJ, vladislav_kovchegov@horizon-bcbsnj.com
The main purpose of this modeling is to be
able to forecast the future of an insurance company. The model of insurance
company was done as a computer simulation of the input flow. The keystone of
this simulation is a semantic model of the history of clients' diseases. To
construct this semantic model we used the alphabet of the types of procedures
performed on the patients with the given chronic disease. For instance, the
alphabet for diabetes contains 34 "letters". The history of disease
could be represented by a short word in a given alphabet and would look like
"A_ANDR S4 S2", where A_, AN,... , S4, S2 are letters of the alphabet
of the disease. The study of the information for five years shows that the
structure of the short words has a tendency to change. To model this tendency
we used Markov chains. The conditional probability was found from the data.
Then using a computer simulation we calculated a set of pseudo-random
"short words". The next problem was to generate the set of
pseudo-random "long words". The list of "long words" and
list of "normative prices" for procedures give us the ability to
calculate mean, "harmonic", minimal and maximal prices for all
diseases. To predict the number of patients we constructed a special system of
differential equations and then from these equations we derived a statistical
model suitable for computer simulation.
Fri, 9:40AM Experimental Psych (A)
A
Nonlinear Dynamical Analysis of Reaction Time. Evidence for
Complex Dynamics that Reflect Response Strategies in Time-Limited Tasks
Alice Kelly, University of Newcastle, akelly@psychology.newcastle.edu.au
Richard Heath & Andrew Heathcote,U of
Newcastle
Reaction time (RT) is a commonly used measure
in the study of cognitive processes. RT often has a complex signal, with large
fluctuations around the mean that are often treated as the accumulated effects
of individual differences and other uncontrolled influences on performance.
However, RT has been found to contain temporal structure such as dependencies
between successive RTs. The issue is whether RT series contain nonlinear
dynamical structure, and, if so, whether a nonlinear dynamical analysis can
provide insight into human cognition. Our results showed that, under conditions
of severe time restrictions on responding and limited practice, RT has low
dimensional, nonlinear dynamics, as characterised by finite dimensionality,
sensitive dependence on initial conditions and complex yet structured attractor
geometry. Under conditions of relaxed time limits and extended practice, the RT
series resembled autocorrelated (AR 1) processes with linear but no nonlinear
dynamical structure. Results from a study that focuses on the evolution of the
RT dynamics with practice suggested that the mechanism driving the nonlinear
dynamics was subjects’ strategy for speed control. Speed control was achieved
dynamically, with errors and misses used recursively as negative feedback. Each
subject’s strategy was individualistic, evidenced by stable attractor geometry
with very distinctive structure. It is argued RT can be used to observe,
measure and model complex dynamics in human information processing, and a
nonlinear dynamical analysis of RT provides insight into cognitive processes
not available from either a linear dynamical or statistical analysis.
Fri, 9:40AM Economics (B)
Model Of Consumer Behavior And Description
Of Consumer Potential For Consumer Market By Methods Of Statistical Mechanic
Vladislav B
Kovchegov, Horizon Blue Cross Blue Shield of NJ
vladislav_kovchegov@horizon-bcbsnj.com
The consumer
potential was described as a weighted combination of two parts. The first part
is a statistical sum which reflects buying of basic needs such as food, clothes
an so on. To formalize this kind of demands we defined deterioration functions
for all types of goods. If wear (deterioration) of the goods exceeds a given
level (threshold), people have to buy the same product again. In this model a
deterioration function is an exponential function. The second part of the
statistical sum is the social part. For all goods we assumed that (1) every
type of goods can be attractive in two different ways: it can be required by
person's basic needs (consumer attraction) or it may be needed by the persons
to increase his/her status in the society (social attraction); (2) every type
of goods has a physical shape. The shape can be described by a code (sequence
of letters) or by a number. In our model shape is a real number between zero
and one. To model a social attraction and fashion we used different states
corresponding to the person having or not having the given object: the state is
equal to zero if the person does not posses the object and is one otherwise.
The second statistical sum of the consumer potential was chosen to reflect the
next property: when the number of neighbors that possess a given item is less
than some threshold then this item has an increasing attractiveness (value of
potential). It means that when the number of persons which own given objects
increases then the social attractiveness (value of potential function) goes up.
When the number of owners reaches or exceeds the threshold the value of the
potential function starts going down. In this situation as the number of
possessors increases the value of potential decreases. This part of the
potential uses the graph of social relations. The presentation contains the
algorithm describing the behavior of companies on the consumer market with
given consumer potential.
Fri, 10:00AM
Experimental Psych (A)
Can People Predict Chaotic Sequences?
Richard Heath, University of Newcastle, heath@psychology.newcastle.edu.au
Previous
studies suggesting that people predict chaotic sequences better than chance,
have not discriminated between sensitivity to nonlinear determinism or
facilitation using autocorrelation. Since prediction accuracy declines with
increases in the look-ahead window in both cases, a decline in prediction
accuracy does not imply chaos sensitivity. To overcome this problem,
phase-randomized surrogate time series are used as a control. Such series have
the same linear properties as the original chaotic sequence but contain no
nonlinear determinism, i.e. chaos. In the experimental task, using a chaotic
Hénon attractor, participants viewed the previous eight days temperatures and
then predicted temperatures for the next four days, over 120 trials. The
control group experienced a sample from a corresponding phase-randomized
surrogate series. Both time series were linearly transformed to provide a
realistic temperature range. The mean relative prediction error increased over
days for the chaotic time series, but remained constant and high for the
surrogate series. The interaction between the days and series factors was
statistically significant, suggesting that people are sensitive to chaos, even
when the autocorrelation functions and power spectra of the control and
experimental series are identical. Implications for the psychological
assessment of individual differences in human prediction are discussed.
Fri, 10:00AM
Economics (B)
Evolutionary Approach to Russian Economy
E. Pougatcheva, Irkutsk State University, solo@isu.runnet.ru
K.
Solovienko & B. Tokarskiy, Irkutsk StateU
Lately
Russian economy has clearly demonstrated a full spectrum of nonlinear effects
that throw doubt on traditional approach "caeteris paribus" to
economic analyses. Failures in management and forecasting of economic
development lead to the idea that economic transformations should be based not
on the mechanical outlook of the XXth Century, but on the conception of world
self-organization. Methodological landmarks of such evolutionary approach should
be: 1) nonlinearity of economic transformations; 2) nonequilibrium of economic
processes; 3) openness of economic system; 4) irreversibility of economic
evolution; 5) multy-alternativity of economic development. The emphasis should
be placed not on the rapid reconstruction of the whole economic system, but on
the transformations that led the system to the basin of attraction of the
desired future (attractor). To our mind these principles were underestimated
during the last economic reforms in Russia.
Fri, 10:40AM
Experimental Psych (A)
Judgments of Aesthetics, Time, and Complexity
as a Function of the Fractal Dimension of Strange Attractors
Maureen
Osorio, Silliman University
Elvie
Dequito & Jeanne Marie Pinili
C. J. Sprott
reported some results of aesthetics of 2D B&W strange attractors at a
previous SCTPLS conference (Aks & Sprott, 1996; Sprott, 1993) showing a
nonlinear relationship to fractal dimension and Lyapunov exponential features of
the attractors. He developed improvements in his program for us, allowing
computer presentation of 3D attractors in color with automated data collection
adaptable to a variety of psychophysical experiments. We made a pilot
exploration with four levels of fractal dimension (4 stimuli at each level,
mean Fs = .59, 1.07, 1.54, 2.27), with small samples of 6 students from each of
3 populations (elementary school students, graduate students, and special ed
students from ethnic minority groups in residence on our campus). In addition
to replicating their results on aesthetic judgments, we additionally asked for
judgments of complexity to see if they were also a nonlinear function of the
dimensionality of stimuli (they were, increasing to a maximum at F = 1.54, and
falling off at F = 2.27), suggesting that aesthetics and complexity judgments
were mediated by perceived complexity. Perhaps this result was due to a loss of
detail of contrast and detail within the attractors at the highest dimensional
complexity. Time judgments did not yield a significant F-ratio, but t-tests
showed the lowest dimensionality yielded shorter time estimates. If complexity
is a determinant of subjective duration of these stimuli, it is saturated at
fairly low levels of the stimulus dimensionality. 3-way ANOVAs within Ss,
showed only the fractal dimension as a significant source, and not academic
level or cultural differences, although there were interesting individual and
some cultural differences. (Indebtedness to Sprott and Aks for developing the
programs, and advice in performance of the experiment.)
Fri, 10:40AM
Education (B)
The 3 R’s of Change in Education
Debra
Kosemetzky, University of Toronto, dkosemetzky@oise.utoronto.ca
For more
than one hundred years, paradoxically, education has been pointed to as the
root of society’s problems and hoped for as the panacea for social change and
prosperity. As such, education is constantly undergoing reform to improve.
However, historical research on education in the United States by Cuban (1990)
and Cuban and Tyack (1995), and other parts of the world, suggests that
educational change efforts have been tried again and again with little success
and many disappointments. Most change efforts involve tinkering with
innovations resulting in first order change. Cuban suggests that what is needed
is second order change so that we have something fundamentally different than
what is in place today. But what is second order change, and could complexity
sciences provide insights into understanding the process of change in
education? To do this will require a different understanding of the process of
change as suggested by Fullan (1991, 1995, 1999). Since schools by their nature
are complex, adaptive systems, this research suggests a conceptual framework to
understand the dynamics of change from a complex adaptive systems perspective
and suggests why schools remain the same and what is needed for second order
change to occur.
Fri, 11:00AM
Experimental Psych (A)
Geometric Approach to Inferential Processes of
Thought in Children
Fabian
Labra, University of Chile, flabra@abello.dic.uchile.cl
Ariel
Quezada & Guy Santibáñez-H.,U of Chile
This work is
a descriptive approximation to the synthetic inferential processes of thought
from a dynamic standpoint. We built a concrete experimental paradigm to
represent and study the dynamics of the inferential processes of thought that
are involved in solving a problem (the strategy game known as
"Battleship"). The geometric instrument used to describe the
inferential dynamics of the subjects was the fractal dimension and cumulative
length. The problem task was presented to children. The results obtained using
fractal dimensions allowed: a) to describe the inferential dynamics of subjects
while dealing with the problem posed. b) to characterise through a model the
dynamic patterns of inferential procedure of each individual of the sample. Our
results suggest that each child has his own functional dynamics unit of
synthetical inferential thought processes.
Fri, 11:00AM
Education and Ecology (B)
Meteorology, Time, and Ecology: Complex
Multidimensional Interactions
Daniel Lotz, Kent State University, dlotz@kent.edu
Meteorological
phenomena of three different levels–individual weather systems, short-term
climatic systems, and long-term climatic cycles–are implicated as a model for
complex, non-linear, ecological systemic interaction. This orientation employs
a temporal dimension of systemic evolution and interdependence as integral to
analysis of complex, multidimensional systems. Individual weather systems are
presented as engaged in a struggle for structure, operating in a fully-chaotic
environment within the physical and temporal constraints of the global climatic
system. This short-term climatic organization furnishes an institutional
framework within which weather phenomena occur, but is itself governed by
medium- and long-term orbital cycles and geometric oscillations that influence
global energy flows and matter distribution. Co-evolution, functional
redefinition of variables (qualitative change), positive feedback, and both
institutional contexts and self-organizing tendencies are discussed to
illustrate how these three levels of meteorological activity interrelate
concurrently in a complex system of oscillating cycles and trans-dimensional
interdependence, where the resultant temporal patterns become emergent entities
of their own. The empirical support for this meta-analysis is highly
multidisciplinary, and bears evidence of the pervasive teleconnections of these
meteorological processes. The complexity in the nature of non-linear and
trans-dimensional cycles and systems is discussed, as is the necessity for a
more temporally—sensitive orientation for ecological co-evolution. Implications
are suggested for the involved subjectivity of person-in-environment social
psychology as well as the self-organizing and patternistic phenomena of
macro-level social ecologism.
Fri, 11:20AM
Experimental Psych (A)
The Large
Scale Structure of
the Genome in Evolution
Gino
Spinelli, University of Bari, ginospinelli@hotmail.com
Progress in
sequence analysis of several genomes, together with a great amount of
structural data allow a better understanding of the dynamic of evolution at
molecular level. I describe in a theoretical framework an application of
complexity theory to the genome in evolution. In this attempt I use several
approach by which I show that repetition of motifs, sequences and repetitive
elements is a main mechanism in evolution of genomes along evolutionary three.
Heterocromatin, which is an emergent phenomenon in eukaryote genomes, is
considered in this approach as a complex adaptive system. By analysing the
behaviour of heterochromatin along different species, I show that such large
part of the genomes is essentially a multifractal-growing phenomenon. A
conceptual model with simple mathematics approach is used in describing its
emergence and maintenance in living cells. The forces which can act at
molecular level are also embedded in the same framework in which emergence of
correlation in DNA traits are explained introducing the definition of
correlated evolution in a critical system at the edge of chaos. Moreover
preliminary data of sequence analysis by using mathematical approach able to
recognize ordered pattern in euchromatic sequences, show that repetition of
motifs act during evolution at molecular level in generating an order and a
language in DNA sequences. Implication for evolutionary theory at the light of
the new science of complexity will be discussed.
Fri, 11:40AM
Experimental Psych (A)
How Change "Inferential Dynamics" When
We Resolve Different Problems?
Omar Cañete
Islas, Universidad de Chile, mbaeza@antar.uchile.cl
Fabian Labra
Spröhnle, Universidad de Chile
This study
presents the questions about how change "inferential dynamics"
(Labra, 1995., Quezada, 1998) when we resolve different problems?. For this, we
used techniques of graphical representation and fractal analysis. First, we
asked to 19 children among 10 to 14 years old, belong San Fernando, VI region,
Chile, to play the "Navy Strategy’s game", using 11 different types
of problem configuration. We rotated and inverted each problem configuration,
so, they had to resolve 88 games. We used a computer program to simulate this
game, and register each final image of every game. After, we calculated their
box-counting dimension from every image. This way, we compared the general and
particular effects from different games and players. The high and significative
correlation from lineal regression between fractal dimension v/s number of
throws for each player, confirm the supposition about an inferential dynamics
underlying to the resolution of every game (this relation was found by Labra,
1995, and confirmed by Quezada, 1998). This relation supports the hypothesis that
differences and regularities founded among players and model, describe
different patterns of inferential dynamics, what lets talk about a different
functional and dynamics variability of thinking to resolve similar problems.
Fri, 1:00PM
Organizations (B)
Spiral
Shell : A Complex
Model For The Innovation Study
Julio
Francisco Dantas de Rezende, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte-UFRN, jrezende@digi.com.br
The study
presents the development of a new model of innovation study: the Spiral Shell
model, that searches to vizualize the innovator process as an evolutive action.
The presentation of this new model is justified by verifying the needs of
organizations that compose a better communication system in the complex and
current change environment. Through the dynamic of innovation study and the
theoretical review , it has been verified that the usual different kinds
presents a kind of predictability, not being sufficient to help understand a
caothic environment. The necessity of a new metodology to management innovation
study was thus verified. The search to present the innovative process model as
a spiral shell ocurrs due to necessity to present an evolution idea to the
innovative dynamic. Thus, as the number of laps of the shell increase, greater
will be the innovative dynamic complexity and the innovation historic that
could be recorded and built supported by each organization innovative action
envolved in the innovation process. Through the Spiral Shell metodology, its
believed that to completely understand the innovation process, it is necessary
to know the parts so one can understand the whole. The Spiral Shell Model
searches visualize in an integrated manner the inovative process, synthesizing
and learning in a single effort the evaluation of all the innovative behaviour.
The Spiral Shell Model represent a theoretical breakthrough to the dynamic
innovative study, beause it’s been verified that the skills of each
organization envolved in the innovation system are needed so the innovative
dynamic occurs.
Fri, 1:00PM
Frontiers in Methods (A)
Webmind: A Complex Chaotic Mind that Analyzes
Complex Chaotic Data
Ben
Goertzel, Intelligenesis Corp, ben@intelligenesis.net
We describe
Webmind, an integrated AI system which embodies principles of complex systems
psychology, and then discuss some applications of Webmind to the analysis of
complex data, principally financial data.
Fri, 1:20PM
Special Symposium (C)
Robin Robertson, rrobertson@pacbell.net
William
Sulis, McMaster U.
Jung's
concept of synchronicity will be presented as an normal subset of a reality in which
acausal connectedness operates generally. The discussion will move
back-and-forth between examples of how synchronicity operates in real-life,
theoretical approaches such as Bill Sulis' concept of saliency, and studies
such as those by Henry Reed on ESP as an extension of normal intimacy, and
William Condon, Ray Birdwhistle and Edward T. Hall on synchrony.
Fri, 1:20PM
Frontiers in Methods (A)
RQA as a Psychological
Diagnostic Tool at the Informational Level
Franco Orsucci, Rome International University, francorsucci@riu.edu
Donatella
Fiore, U Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Alessandro
Giuliani, Istituto Superiore di SantiChuck Webber Jr., Loyola U, Joe Zbilut,
Rush U
A
methodology based upon recurrence quantification analysis is proposed for the
study of orthographic structure of written texts. Different orthographic data
sets were subjected to recurrence quantification analysis, a procedure which
has been found to be diagnostically useful in the quantitative assessment of
ordered series in fields such as physics, molecular dynamics, physiology, and
general signal processing. Recurrence quantification was developed from
recurrence plots as applied to the analysis of nonlinear, complex systems in
the physical sciences, and is based on the computation of a distance matrix of
the elements of an ordered series (in this case the letters constituting
selected speech and poetic texts). From a strictly mathematical view, the
results show the possibility of demonstrating invariance between different
language exemplars despite the apparent low-level of coding (orthography).
Comparison with the actual texts confirms the ability of the method to reveal
recurrent structures, and their complexity. Using poems as a reference standard
for judging speech complexity, the technique exhibits language independence,
order dependence and freedom from pure statistical characteristics of studied
sequences, as well as consistency with easily identifiable texts. Such studies
provide phenomenological markers of hidden structure as coded by the purely
orthographic level.
Fri, 1:20PM
Organizations (B)
Organizational
Adoption Of A Product
When Network Externalities Matter: The Catastrophe Theory Analysis Of Microsoft
Word Purchases
Rense Lange,
Illinois Department of Education (c/o oliva@sbm.temple.edu
Sean R.
McDade, Gallup Organization; Terence A. Oliva, Temple University
This paper
examines the organization adoption of a product when network externalities are
present. Our purpose is to help provide an additional understanding the market
dynamics relating to the adoption of innovations, standards, or high-technology
products when network externality matters. The specific application used is
developed from panel data on the organizational adoptions of Microsoft’s Word
product for DOS and MAC operating systems. The theoretical framework for the
analysis is based on work in the economics literature on network externalities
and catastrophe theory. The methodological approach is the use of the new
GEMCAT II multivariate catastrophe-model estimation procedure, which allows for
statistical parameter estimates and more complex model testing. The paper
focuses on industrial-organizational adoptions where relatively little
empirical research has been done. The sample of panel firms is drawn from
Techtel’s Market Opinion survey covering organizations in 14 industries,
covering 34 business quarters starting in the mid-1980"s. Within the broad
context of the study the following issues are touched on: 1) organizational
adoption, in general, and adoption for use in particular; 2) the examination of
adoption in the presence of network externalities; 3) sudden shifts from one
standard to a different standard; 4) the use of nonlinear dynamics as a tool to
examine complex organizational behavior; and 5) the nature of organizational
adoption of competing software products when standardization is important.
Results of the empirical analysis are consistent with the theoretical framework
found in economics and catastrophe theory, lending clear support to the idea
that adoption-bandwagons occur when network externalities are present. However,
the results go beyond this by showing how current products can gain and lose a
market over time as new products provide more salient benefits. This latter
result comes from the dynamic aspect of using catastrophe theory to examine the
adoption process over time.
Fri, 1:40PM
Frontiers in Methods (A)
Recent
Stability Results for
Nonlinear Difference Equations
Hassan
Sedaghat, Virginia Commonwealth University, hsedagha@vcu.edu
A number of
substantial mathematical results have been obtained in the past few years
concerning the asymptotic stability (or attractivity) of the fixed points and
cycles of a nonlinear mapping. In the case of continuous one-dimensional maps,
we now have various conditions that are both necessary and sufficient for
asymptotic stability (non-local) which also provide substantial information
about basins of attraction of fixed points and cycles. For two and higher
dimensions, the situation is not as clear, but new results supplementing the
existing Liapunov theory have been obtained. This talk will present these
results and some of their uses in biological population models.
Fri, 1:40PM
Organizations (A)
Organizational
Addiction,
Complexity, and Change Dynamics
John Loveland Link, VOLVOX, Inc, Jwllink@aol.com
Jo Lee
Loveland Link, VOLVOX, Inc
Drawing on
and expanding beyond our previous work Chaos, Spirit and Addiction, which we
presented at the 1992 Chaos Network Conference, we want examine new questions
regarding the premise of organizational addiction. We will consider these
questions against our emerging field insights from change dynamics initiatives,
and the role that unconscious (and multiple) system rules have in perpetuating
less than optimum behavior" in organizations, thereby affecting how
organizations seek to find their own fitness landscapes. We will explore
whether unconscious system rules are inherent sources of resistance to
organizational evolution, or are potential levers to facilitate emergence. We
will examine the implications of unconscious and conscious (derived through visioning,
future searches, and other strategies) system rules on organizational
evolution. Finally, we will describe some preliminary findings on the interplay
between linear and nonlinear initiatives on overall system dynamics.
Fri, 2:00PM
Frontiers in Methods (A)
Estimation of Embedding Dimension Performing
Forecasting with Artificial Neural Networks
Xavier
Rifà-Ros, University of Barcelona, xrifa@psi.ub.es
M.
Viader-Junyent, University of Barcelona
A new method
is presented to estimate embedding dimension of an observed time series. It is
based on the capacity of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to perform nonlinear
forecasting. Input-Output patterns to be learned are time-delay vectors of the
reconstructed attractor (x(t), x(t+1), x(t+2), ..., x(t+k-1)) and (x(t+1),
x(t+2), x(t+3), ..., x(t+k)) respectively, where k is embedding dimension.
Training of ANN is successively done for embedding dimension 1 to 10 with a
half of the data set. Prediction is assessed with the other half using the
Normalized Mean Squared Error (NMSE). The performance of ANN improves each time
we add a new dimension to the pattern until we arrive to the embedding
dimension of the time series, then NMSE stops increasing. We have tested the
method with different low dimensional attractors (Hènon, Lorenz and Rossler)
showing clearly the embedding dimension of the time series, even with very
short data sets. It is a promising method to be tested with other data sets
concerning psychology or life sciences.
Fri, 2:00PM
Organizations (B)
A Complexity
Guide for the Practical Manager
Ken Baskin,
Life Design Partners, bman47@netaxs.com
Robert
Sigmond, Temple University
From the
point of view of Complexity Theory, human society is a complex adaptive system
in which individuals come together to form entities at many scales work units
or families, organizations, markets or governments, economies, social
ecosystems. As a result, it seems logical to assume that the principles of
Complexity Theory should be able to help managers, in organizations from the
most mechanical bureaucracies to the most organic, new organizations,
understand how to be more effective. This presentation will examine how these
principles might be used to create such a guide to managers, focusing on four
conclusions drawn from applying Complexity Theory to actual management
conditions: 1) All human complex adaptive systems are networks of personal
relationships, in which the interactions between individual people sustain the
dynamics of the system. 2) The effectiveness of any human complex adaptive
system depends, not only on goals, objectives and management systems, but even
more on the quality of those relationships. 3) The key strange attractor driving
human behavior is the mindset, the series of mental models, of any individual.
While mindsets are purely individual, organizations and economies gain
coherence as their members, through continuing interaction, share more and more
elements of their mindsets. 4) To be most effective, managers must demonstrate
and encourage caring, meaningful relationships with all those in their personal
networks, both inside and outside their organizations.
Fri, 2:40PM Symposium:
Self-Reference (Jeff Goldstein,
Moderator) (C)
Many
critical scientific and mathematical discoveries/methods/theories of the past
hundred years have included self-reference as an essential component. For
example, Godel, Tarski, Church, and Turing not only utilized self-reference in
terms of recursive functions, but, in the case of Godel and Turing, directly
employed self-referential paradox in the core of their discoveries. In a
similar vein, John von Neumann's insights into self-replicating automata, the
forerunner of today's cellular automata, relied upon self-referential dynamics.
Moreover, self-referential functional iteration is at the heart of insights
provided by NDS. Self-reference is also crucial to the influential theory of
autopoeisis. This symposium will look at self-reference from clinical,
philosophical, and mathematical perspectives.
Terry Marks-Tarlow, Creativity Research Institute of Southern California, markstarlow@hotmail.com
This
clinical paper focuses on the importance of paradoxes of self-reference to the
psyche. Paradoxes related to the self both indicate core conflict, as well as
provide a primary method for resolving inner conflict and driving consciousness
to higher levels. This talk revisits the ancient Greek myth of Oedipus. The
riddle of the Sphinx is examined as a paradox of self-reference whose solution
helps humankind leap from concrete to metaphorical thinking. Other examples are
harvested in strange fields, ranging from the bon mots of Oscar Wilde to a
personal Richard Feyman story. Paradoxes of self-reference are viewed as a
primary vehicle for complexifying the interior space-time of the psyche.
Jeff
Goldstein,Adelphi University, jegolds@attglobal.net
Self-referential
paradoxes have long beguiled philosophers, logicians, and mathematicians.
Recently, such paradoxes have become the object of modeling attempts, e.g., the
use of NDS by Grim, Mar, and St. Denis in their The Philosophical Computer. A
very different modeling strategy, employing the use of a 4 valued lattice as
well as harmonic functions has been taken by Nathaniel Hellerstein in his
Diamond: A Paradox Logic. In this presentation, I want to draw out the
implications of these and similar models of self-referential paradoxes,
particularly in regard to their temporal and spatial implications. For
instance, NDS assumes a dynamical perspective in which a paradox is viewed as a
series of deliberations over time, whereas the lattice approach has more of an
a-temporal, spatial standpoint. Yet, in both cases there seems to be the need
to incorporate both spatial and temporal constructs.
Robin Robertson, rrobertson@pacbell.net
Since every
living creature has a neurological structure that allows it to fit into the
world, over time the relationships within and the relationships without become
so intertwined that it is difficult to separate the world into separate parts.
Everything and everyone are linked in lovely self-referential arabesques of
relationship. One expression of this can be traced back at least as far as Lao
Tzu. It has been restated variously by Plato, Xenophanes, French theologian
Alain de Lille, Dante, astronomer Giordano Bruno, philosopher/scientist Francis
Bacon, even American transcendentalist Ralph Waldo Emerson. Perhaps the
clearest expression was by mathematician and philosopher Blaise Pascal, who
said that "It [where "it" might be nature, the universe, God] is
an infinite sphere, the center of which is everywhere, the circumference
nowhere." There are many ways to deal with this self-referential world:
through dreams, synchronicity, meditation, modern mind-machines, and ancient
divinatory tools like the I Ching. In this presentation, we'll dip into each,
with an emphasis on meditation and mind-machines.
Matthijs Koopmans, MKoopmans@aol.com
Double bind
theory argues that symptoms of schizophrenia are an expression of the
internalization of contradictory patterns of interaction that occur within the
family. As a result of this internalization process, individuals learn to
perceive their universe in contradictory patterns. This presentation
complements double bind theory with two other perspectives: Lidz’ family
systems theory of schizophrenia, which argues that symptoms of schizophrenia
are an expression of a confounding of basic family roles across generational
boundaries, and Varela’s notion of living systems as autopoietic, i.e., as
resistant to second order changes, which conflict with the premises on which
the survival of those systems are based. Both of these notions have immediate
relevance for double bind. Lidz’ theory attributes the occurrence of
contradictory interaction patterns in the family to the existence of
conflicting relational frames. The definition of the family as autopoietic
implies that the conflicting expressions of affect, and the accompanying
resistance to change often noted in family therapy circles, originate in the
conflicting self-definition of the system. In this scenario, individuals who
perceive their universe in double bind patterns also perceive themselves in
double bind patterns because they themselves are part of that universe. The
lack of autonomy which characterizes schizophrenic patients is an expression,
then, of a self-definition on the individual level which is paradoxical and
self-contradictory (self ? not self). Implications of this integrated
conceptualization for our contemporary understanding of schizophrenia are
briefly discussed.
Fri, 2:40PM
Organizations (B)
Evidence
Supporting Creativity
at the Edge of Chaos
Tim Haslett, Monash U, linchpin@surf.net.au
A widely
discussed notion in the field of non-linear theory is that of the Edge of Chaos
where systems, and in particular organisations, are presumed to be at their
most creative. This is a powerful and intellectually seductive argument and one
which has been bandied about by many popular writers in the area, with little
attention to the need for any empirical evidence. This paper presents evidence
from a simulation model of a kanban system which indicates that the system
performed better as it became less predictable and stable. The results from
spectral analysis indicate that the system moves towards a chaotic regime under
certain input conditions while at the same time improving performance on one of
the key performance measures of a kanban system. While not being able to
establish that the system is at the edge of chaos, nor indeed being able to
establish where a the edge of chaos actually is, this paper is able to suggest
that movement towards a chaotic regime is accompanied by improvement
performance.
Fri, 2:40PM
Frontiers in Methods (A)
Chaotic
Signal Recognition
through Feature Extraction and Neural Networks
Giovanni
Morgavi, National Research Council, morgavi@ice.ge.cnr.it
Mauro
Morando, National Research Council
The chaotic
signal recognition and classification is a relevant scientific problem in a
wide range of practical applications: from the failure detection in mechanical
equipment to illness diagnosis in medicine and biology. In this paper a
procedure to solve the problem of recognition and classification of sampled
musical rythms is presented. . The lack of precise rules for doing this
analysis makes difficult and often ambiguous the automatic execution of a
cognitive process naturally performed by human brain. This procedure can be
extended to the classification of any signals showing similar characteristic
(i.e. EEG or ECG). Due to the complexity of the time dependence, standard
procedures used for chaos characterisation (i.e. correlation dimension,
Lyapunov exponents, etc) can fail. Moreover a direct usage of artificial neural
network can introduce too many optimization variables. The proposed procedure
can be divided in two phases: the first is the extraction of some new type of
invariant from the sampled time series ; the second consists of the usage of
this extracted features as input for a classifying standard neural network. This
system was able to distinguish between binary and ternary signals with a
precision of 99%. The single rhythm was classified within an error of 5%. The
proposed solution seems to be able to deal with the behaviour that
characterises a musical rhythmic sequence, and to classify patterns
independently of the musical instrument and tempo.
Fri, 3:00PM
Organizations
The Worry
Game: A Non-linear
Model of How Anxiety is Distributed in a Hierarchy
Larry
Hirschhorn, Center for Applied Research, Lhirschhorn@mail.cfar.com
The paper
develops a quasi game of life model based on a one-dimensional array. The array
represents the simplest form of a hierarchy, that is a straight-line chain of
command. The rules of game specify when a role holder at one level of the
hierarchy is worried (on) or not worried (off) These rules are derived from a
common sense understanding of how delegation is understood and experienced in a
hierarchy. The result is Class II Game with a cycle that repeats every five
iterations and is independent of the number of levels in the hierarchy. The
results is interpreted to mean that as the number of levels increases worry
work cycles more quickly down and up the chain, compensating for the increase
in distance between the top and bottom. The paper concludes with an
interpretation of what it means that anxiety moves through a chain of command,
suggesting that this is one source of organizational adaptability.
Fri, 3:00PM
Frontiers in Methods (A)
A Generalized
Fast Algorithm for BDS-type Statistics
David Mayer-Foulkes, Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas, mayerfou@dis1.cide.mx
We provide a
fast algorithm to calculate the m-dimensional distance histogram on which
BDS-type statistics are based. The algorithm generalizes a fast algorithm due
to LeBaron by calculating the histogram for any finite set of distances
simultaneously, also using induction in the dimensions. By reordering the
calculation appropriately, the algorithm also requires less memory and time.
The two algorithms are compared using LeBaron's MSDOS implementation in C and
our user-friendly Windows program, which is suitable for a series of
applications. The generalized algorithm is faster when more than a few values
of m and epsilon (the distance parameter) are required, and is set up to
calculate up to 255 values using short integer arithmetic.
Fri, 3:20PM
Psych of Personality (A)
Understanding Individual Human Differences through
the Application of Chaos Theory
S. Kenneth
Thurman, Temple University, sthurman@astro.temple.edu
Christine
Charyton, Temple University
Over the
past decade more and more literature has appeared which has applied the tenants
of chaos and dynamical systems theory to psychological processes. Nevertheless,
this literature has not been synthesized into a coherent model for
understanding human differences. Thus, the purpose of this presentation will be
to propose a model that incorporates transactional views of human development
(e.g., Sameroff andChandler, 1975), with chaos and dynamical systems theory.
This model will provide a unique framework which will be applied to explicating
and understanding the emergence of individual human difference. The model will
also stress the importance of inductive approaches to human development
research especially as it pertains to the delineation of individual human
difference. Implications and guidelines for using this model in both research
and applied settings will be suggested. Participants will be urged to engage in
dialogue concerning these suggestions and their usefulness to the field. Thus,
we would hope to draw upon the expertise of the participants and develop a
synergy with them that enhances everyone’s understanding of this complex topic.
Fri, 3:20PM
Organizations (B)
Applications of Symbolic Dynamics in the Study of
Knowledge Transfer in a Project Management Team
George Kuk,
University of Nottingham, g.kuk@nottingham.ac.uk
This article
reports the findings from a field study of using cross-functional teams to
expedite knowledge transfer in high technology firms. Specifically we tested
Gersick's (1991) model of punctuated equilibrium in group interactions and
performance using analytical techniques developed by Guastello and his
associates (1998). Transcripts of six meetings (which marked the entire life
span) of a project management team were coded and analyzed. The results
indicate that in contrast to most ad hoc groups, the revolutionary changes
pertaining to knowledge transfer occurred much earlier on. The high rate of
incremental improvement in knowledge accumulation is attributed to the
interaction, information sharing and cross-fertilization of ideas among
knowledge workers from R&D, marketing, production and other functional
groups. Implications for process model paradigm in group theories and
concurrent engineering in general are discussed.
Fri, 3:20PM
Frontiers in Methods (A)
Computing Fractal Dimensions using the Relative
Aggregate Dispersion (RD) Method: An Application to the Inter-item Production
Times in Exhaustive Semantic Memory Recall
Rense Lange,
Illinois State Board of Education, rlange@smtp.isbe.state.il.us
Most
currently available algorithms for computing the fractal dimension of time
series have some undesirable properties, including large data requirements and
the necessity to subjectively estimate a linear region in the autocorrelation
function (Grassberger - Procaccia). The relative aggregate dispersion (RD)
method, as described in detail by West, Hamilton, and West (2000, Vol. 4) in a
recent issue of NDPLS, avoids these two problems. The purpose of the proposed
presentation is two-fold. First, I will describe a preliminary implementation
of the RD method in Borland's Delphi V5.0 language. This highly optimized
program allows users to (a) analyze time series with up to 1,000,000
observations; (b) select arbitrary data-segments for individual analysis; (c)
vary the maximum size of the aggregation windows; (d) run any number of
analyses in batch mode; and (e) obtain relevant statistics and publication quality
graphs of the time series as well as of the log-log plots of the relative
dispersion versus the number of data points in the aggregate. Finally, the
program implements a random data shuffle test, with user specifiable numbers of
replications, to determine the statistical significance of fractal dimension.
Second, I will present an example application of the RD algorithm involving the
data of research into the retrieval times of exhaustive search of semantic
memory. In particular, this research required subjects (N = 34) to recall the
names of as many food items as possible. The inter-item production times (IIT)
between successive recall events is the basic time series being analyzed. The
main findings are that (a) the ITT have an average fractal dimension D of about
1.35 (M = 1.37, Median = 1.34, SD = 0.139) across the available subjects, which
translates into an overall nearest neighbor ITT correlation of 0.23; (b) the
average shuffled D (=1.58) was reassuringly close to the theoretical random
value (i.e., 1.5); © shuffle tests for each individual (based on 1000
replications) indicate that the D values differs significantly from their
respective chance levels at p < .05 (2-sided) for 21 of the 34 subjects; (d)
the D values depart significantly (p < .000001) from the shuffled baseline
values when the data of all subjects are combined; and (d) no systematic
deviations from linearity were observed in the subjects' log-log dispersion vs.
aggregation plots. In other words, the patterning of the ITT cannot be
explained as a linear, additive, and uncorrelated process. Instead, their
fluctuations must be understood as a nonlinear dynamical process. The
implications of this finding will be discussed in greater detail.
Fri, 3:40PM
Organizations (B)
Lock-in in Business Organizations
Lynda
Woodman Keen, Plectics Institute, lynda@nm.freei.net
Business
organizations are complex adaptive systems and their ability to adapt is
restricted by the extent that they are locked-into the patterns of their
history. Some historical locked-in patterns can have significant benefits. For
example restrictions to adaptation can enable connectivity and coordination
through the formation of structure and standards. However, lock-in becomes a problem
for organizations stuck in inappropriate historical patterns. These
organizations are unable to adapt in their own best interests to changed
circumstances. New information technologies are eliminating the historical
barriers of time, geography and accessibility of information transference and
manipulation, and thereby radically changing the limits of the possible in the
structures of everyday life. As a result, business environments are in a state
of flux and those organizations unable to adapt appropriately, will perish.
Traditional business management practices are a major area for concern. These
practices emerged about a hundred years ago to better coordinate large scale
human action, and have been evolving ever since. However, new information technologies
are opening up radically different ways to coordinate large-scale human action
more efficiently and more effectively. Business organizations that are
locked-into traditional, business management practices, will miss vast new
opportunities, brought about by rapidly evolving and co-evolving information
technologies. The nature of lock-in will be discussed together with the essence
and implications of coordination of large-scale human action, in terms of
information transference and interpretation.
Fri, 4:00PM
Psych of Personality (A)
A Developmental
Systems Model of Temperament Development
Ty
Partridge, University of Illinois at Chicago, tpartrid@uic.edu
This paper
presents a six-level dynamic hierarchical model of temperament development.
Structurally the model is comprised of three intra-personal developmental
factors: genetic, neuroendocrine, and behavioral; and three inter-personal
ecological factors: microsystem, exosystem and macrosystem. It is proposed that
temperament is an emergent property of the dynamic integration across these six
levels operating at multiple spaciotemporal scales. The functional form of this
integration is represented using hierarchical graph theory and Markovian
transition matricies. Specifically, horizontal coactions within each level lead
to intra-level integration and self-organization. Thus, at this critical level
of self-organization each level begins to function as a meta-agent in vertical
bi-directional interactions among levels. Drawing on Kaufmann’s (1993) NK model
it is then shown that at critical levels of vertical integration temperament
profiles emerge as patterns of peaks on an 9-dimensional fitness landscape. The
9-dimensional fitness landscape represents the temperament structure of the
Thomas and Chess (1970) temperament structure. Differential landscape profiles
result from symmetry breaking properties inherent in the integrational dynamics
of the system.
Fri, 4:00PM
Organizations
Chaotic
Elaboration on
Occupation
Charlotte
Royeen, Creighton University, croyeen@creighton.edu
The field of
occupational therapy is at the crossroads of forces of rapid and pervasive
change in health care provision and reimbursement systems intersecting with or
cross the emerging theoretical and research foundations in the profession. The
current paper proposes that one adaptation to societal change can be the
elaboration of occupation considering theoretical innovations and research in
chaos theory. Chaos theory resonates with the art of occupational therapy: The
challenge to occupational therapy is to recognize the importance of chaos and
to use it. A justification as well as a reconstruction of occupation will be
presented through six concepts concatenated to chaos theory and research. These
are (1) occupational complexity, (2) occupational patterns, (3) occupational
processes, (4) occupational shaping, (5) occupational variance, and (6)
occupational transience. How these six concepts expand theory to describe,
contemplate and subsequently measure important aspects of occupation and
therapy will be hypothesized. Consideration of these constructs integrating
chaos theory with occupation can better align occupational therapy with current
rends in basic and social sciences. These constructs about occupation related
to chaos theory can also provide for increased interdisciplinary communication
that further strengthens disciplinary development in occupational therapy and
occupation science.
Fri, 4:20PM
Psych of Personality
A Swallowtail
Catastrophe Model of Approach-Withdrawal Temperament Types
Ty
Partridge, University of Illinois at Chicago, tpartrid@uic.edu
Using the
New York Longitudinal Data, approach-withdrawal patterns (AW) of three-year old
toddlers are examined. Frequency distributions for the AW measure indicated
that a swallowtail catastrophe model might be most appropriate to fit the data.
A dynamic difference equation model was utilized to operationalize the
swallowtail catastrophe. Based on theoretical predictions derived from
developmental contextual theory, parental responsiveness was selected as the
asymmetry parameter. A parent-child behavioral congruence measure derived from
measures of parental inconsistency and child adaptability was used as the first
bifurcation parameter. A second child-environment fit measure using child
sensory thresholds was used as the second bifurcation parameter. Results
suggest that the swallowtail catastrophe model improves model prediction
significantly over linear and cusp models.
Fri, 4:40PM
Psych of Personality
Task of the
Man - to Control a
Nature: The Classification of Methods of Management of a Nature is a Typology
of Personality
Anatoliy Shiyan, Head of Institute for Social Technologies, sim@hmel.vinnitsa.com
Last years
the understanding grows that the Nature is arranged by a principle of
hierarchical self-organization. It means, that the natural systems, as a rule,
are formed on a background of the certain flows of energy and/or mass. These
self-organized systems arise and destroy again, - even when external conditions
(flows of energy and/or mass) remain constant. The self-organization is
described by the nonlinear equations, and consequently "nonlinear
thinking" penetrates into all areas of a science more deeply. The natural
systems are, as a rule, Hierarchical. It is understood that, as a result of association
of a number of the self-organized objects from "the same level of
hierarchy", a certain new object having new properties and qualities will
be obtained. But what are ways of change of the approach to management of a
Nature? Which methods, algorithms and ways are needed for operation on Nature
objects so that to reach optimum results, - and to not ruin the Man? For this
purpose it is necessary to reconsider base that we can name as Optimum Control.
Such Optimum Control should take into account as the basic laws of existence of
Natural objects, and nature of functioning of the Man. I report results on
classification of methods of management of Natural systems and I show that this
classification is classification of the people. The data of testing of the
received results are given.
Sat, 9:00AM
Philosophy of Complexity (B)
The Self as
Coagulated Interaction
Guido Hucke,
aron2@freenet.de
According to
Duerr - successor of Heisenberg at Munich - the whole universe can be seen as
one system which only consists of interaction. Sometimes this interaction
coagulates into solid forms which we then call matter = substance. But at first
the universe has to be understood as an ever changing process. I will use this
metaphor for describing and defining the Self. In my (and others) opinion the
Self only consists of interaction, coagulated interaction. It roughly seems as
if the Self, the identity is something solid, and indeed our Selves are
psychologically impenetrable to each other like our bodies are physically
impenetrable. At the same time our Selves consist in principle of all possible
relationships to all possible material and mental "worlds outside and
inside". In this metaphor every form of (human) communication can be
understood as being embedded in a comprehensive general field (see Hawkings
Theory of Everything), where as spezific forms of communication (e.g. verbal,
non-verbal, different languages, sympathetic, antipathetic, etc.) may be
represented in spezific fields (on the analogy of the symmetry groups in
Quantum Field Theory). Because in this point of view we ARE interaction =
communication = conversation, we consist of inner and outer dialogues (see
Gadamer).
Sat, 9:00AM
Clinical Psych and Phys (A)
How To Make A Multidimensional Diagnostic And
Therapeutic Approach Operational
Karl Toifl,
University of Vienna, Karl.Toifl@akh-wien.ac.at
A definition
of illness and health, oriented according to the quality of the state of a
particular system and based on findings from chaos theory and the theory of
self-organization in complex systems, has been developed and tested clinically.
The definition takes into consideration both individual biopsychosocial
complexity and dynamics and ways in which extremely varied demands and problems
are dealt with. Due to biopsychosocial complexity, 3 different theoretically
established approaches are used in the course of the diagnostic process, one of
these being biologically, one depth-psychologically and one sytemically
oriented. The diagnostic mosaic developed in this way both permits and requires
the establishment of a therapeutic concept that is worked out on an individual
basis. A pilot project made it possible to operationalize and evaluate this
diagnostic and therapeutic process. In the course of the project, each patients
strengths and potential for improvement were defined and documented for the
whole biopsychosocial area. The formulation of concrete therapeutic goals is
based on this potential for improvement and carried out by a team respecting
the patient’s wishes. After a certain duration of therapy, a special evaluation
system is used to estimate and assess qualitatively the extend to which the
goals have been achieved. Through this project, it should be possible to permit
the main processes in medical systems, i.e. diagnosis and therapy, to be
scrutinized, reconstructed and thus qualitatively improved.
Sat, 9:20AM
Clinical Psych and Phys (A)
Analysis of
Vocal Disorders in a
Feature Space
Lorenzo Matassini, Max-Planck-Institut fuer Physik komplexer Systeme, lorenzo@mpipks-dresden.mpg.de
This paper
provides a way to classify vocal disorders for clinical applications, thanks to
the idea of geometric signal separation in a feature space. It is well known
that the human voice source generates complex signals including subharmonics
and toroidal oscillations. Typical chaotic quantities - like the entropy and
the dimension of the attractor - together with autocorrelation function, power
spectrum and other conventional measures are analysed in order to provide
entries for the feature vectors. We report on a successful application of the
geometrical signal separation in distinguishing between normal and disordered
phonation. Both qualitative and quantitative results are presented. This
approach can be applied as far as the post-operatory evolution and possible
rehabilitation are concerned, which are commonly performed on a subjective
basis only. Finally, glottal functionality can be analysed by means of
objective indexes other than visual inspection of the spectrogram.
Sat, 9:20AM
Philosophy of Complexity (B)
Chaos, Complexity
and the Impermanence of Being:
The Psychology of Uncertainty
Kerry
Gordon, New Paradigm Studies Program, kjgordon@acncanada.net;
This paper
examines the question of indeterminism and its implications for a new
relationship between science, spirituality and psychology in the 21st century.
In accepting Prigogine's assertion that "Chance, or probability, is no
longer a convenient way of accepting ignorance, but rather part of a new,
extended rationality" we understand that uncertainty is an inherent cosmic
expression, deeply embedded within the core of reality. The human psyche has
always known this to the extent that Heidegger utterly rejected the notion of
anxiety as pathology considering it rather an essential state of being. We will
argue that it is precisely from this cosmic ground of uncertainty that anxiety,
and indeed existence itself, continuously emerge. This paper examines
uncertainty and its child, anxiety, as a necessary consequence of a creative
universe and begins to formulate a psychology in accordance with such a
reality. We will also show that such a psychological perspective must
inevitably be transpersonal since an unpredictable universe transcends the
merely unknown and raises the issue of the unknowable. This is an inherently
spiritual formulation, which directly addresses the experience of mystery and
the nature of faith. Drawing on the theories of chaos, complexity and
self-organizing systems as well as the spiritual teachings of Vajrayana
Buddhism, Hassidism, and Kabbalah, this paper explores the possibility for a
psychology in which uncertainty is regarded not as a limit but as an expression
of the boundless creativity inherent in the universe.
Sat, 9:40AM
Clinical Psych and Phys (A)
Quantitative
Characterization of
Patient-Therapist Communication in Dialectical Behavior Therapy
Paul Rapp, Medical College of Pennsylvania and Hahnemann University, Paul.E.Rapp@Drexel.edu
K. E.
Korslund, Medical College of Pennsylvania and Hahnemann University
Psychotherapy
sessions with an outpatient diagnosed with borderline personality disorder were
videotaped and a symbolic representation of the dialogue was constructed by
assigning symbols to each verbal presentation according to its content. In this
investigation, the construction of the symbolic classification protocol was
informed by the therapeutic strategy used by the therapist: dialectical
behavior therapy. The long-term object of the investigation is to search
mathematically for sequence-sensitive patterns in patient-therapist
communication and to determine if these patterns change during the course of
treatment. In the pilot study reported in this communication, we investigated
the validity of algorithm redundancy, a novel measure of symbolic content, in
characterizing therapeutically generated symbol sequences. It is shown that, in
contrast with other symbol-based measures of complexity, algorithmic redundancy
is invariant to the length of the symbol sequence. The longitudinal dependence
of redundancy over the course of successive consultations and the relationship,
if any, between redundancy and the clinically assessed efficacy of treatment is
a matter for subsequent research.
Sat, 9:40AM
Philosophy of Complexity (B)
Our Three
Natures: A Dynamical,
Historical Perspective on the Human-Planet Relationship
William
Johnston, University of Utah, johnston@psych.utah.edu
Using a
dynamical-systems framework, the universe is seen as having complexified across
multiple phase transitions, from which three basic forms of nature have
emerged. First nature, matter, emerged from the big bang some 12-15 billion
years ago; second nature, life, from the first bacteria some 3.5-4 billion
years ago; third nature, ideology (e.g., institutions and technology), with a
shift to self-reflective, symbolic thought and agrarianism in humans some 8-40
thousand years ago. These three basic natures have entered into a spiraling, co-evolving
set of relationships which have led to the big problems now facing the planet.
Third nature has infused human minds with several insidious ideas, or memes,
including the ideas of progress and separation from, war with, control of, and
superiority to first and second natures. These ideas have led to a complex
institutional order, including reductionistic, Western science, that has
dramatically altered the planet and put it in peril. It is suggested that
humanity may have to undergo a profound phase transition if third nature is to
be brought into harmony with first and second natures, the viability of the
planet restored, and the big problems resolved.
Sat, 10:00AM
Clinical Psych and Phys (A)
Brain
Processing:
Attractors and Patterns
Rita
Weinberg, National-Louis University, rwei@wheeling1.nl.edu
The human
brain is a complex dynamical system. It develops patterns, operates its own
patterns, and is attracted to patterns which are similar in structure to their
own. Psychotherapists are effective in facilitating change in clients when they
utilize language and metaphors which match those brain patterns of the client.
If brains respond so well to and favor their own matching patterns, what draws
them to attractors which are different in pattern? What enables the brain to
take on new, altered, or contrasting patterns? Attractors may have their appeal
either in slight modifications of existing patterns, or may appeal by having
drastically different patterns probably because of bifurcation. Change patterns
also may come from belief systems. If those are altered, the clent may be more
attracted to different patterns. We know how resistant many systems are to
change. It is unlikely that the ability to be attracted to and drawn to very
new or different patterns are necessary. Brains must therefore grow and
develop, and must be responsive to crises or environmental changes. Therefore,
this may be an evolutionary neurological capability. Resistance to change may
be from comfort with existing system, habit, belief, or other causes.
Sat, 10:00AM
Philosophy of Complexity (B)
The Holistic
Trend in Nonlinear Science
Helena
Knyazeva, Russian Academy of Sciences, knyazeva@iph.ras.ru
To train a
holistic rather than analytical view is, to all appearances, the today’s need
of nonlinear science. The very essence of the modern research in nonlinear
dynamics of complex systems is connected with the ability to transfer the
models of complex behavior from one disciplinary field of knowledge to another,
i.e. to do a special research when having a general and profound understanding
of patterns of complex behavior and life. To think globally in order to succeed
in solving a local and peculiar problem!. One of the vital tasks of nonlinear
science consists in the study of rules of integration and of co-evolution of
complex structures of different ages, i.e. structures being at different stages
of evolution and having different rates (tempos) of evolution. The main rule of
nonlinear synthesis of parts into a complex whole can be formulated as follows:
integration of relatively simple evolving structures into a more complex one
occurs by the establishment of a common tempo of development in all unified parts
(fragments, simple structures). Structures of different ages start to co-exist
in one tempo-world, begin to develop with the same speed. There are various,
but not arbitrary, ways of nonlinear synthesis. A certain degree of overlapping
of simple structures, a topology of integration is very important when the
process of integration takes place. The holistic vision is substantial in
application of models of nonlinear dynamics in cognitive science: enactive, or
situated, cognition (Varela), holistic features of creative activities
(Knyazeva & Haken).
Sat, 10:40AM
Clinical Psych and Phys (A)
Resting And Postural Tremor In Parkinson’s
Disease: Time And Frequency Regularity
David
Vaillancourt, Penn State University, dev107@psu.edu
KM Newell,
Penn State University
The present
study examined the time and frequency characteristics of Parkinson’s disease
patients that exhibit no clinical signs of tremor. Simultaneous recordings of
finger acceleration from the middle phalange and electromyographic (EMG)
activity of the extensor digitorum communis (EDC) and flexor digitorum
superficialis (FDS) muscles were made on eight Parkinson’s disease and eight
age-matched control subjects under a postural finger, postural hand and resting
tremor condition. There were no differences in the amount of limb motion and
the modal frequency was similar between the two subject groups. The
time-dependent organization of Parkinson’s disease tremor demonstrated a
significant decline in approximate entropy (ApEn) indicating more regular
oscillations in Parkinson’s disease tremor. There was a reduction in the
proportion of power in the 20-25 Hz frequency band and an increase in the 8-12
Hz region for the Parkinson’s disease group in the tremor, EMG, and tremor-EMG
coherence measures. Both time and frequency analyses between the acceleration
and extensor EMG signals suggest there is an enhanced relation between neural
activity in the 8-12 Hz region and the oscillatory motion of the limb. These
results show that the time evolutionary properties of tremor can uniquely
distinguish Parkinson’s disease subjects and provide support to the general
hypothesis that there is a loss of spectral reserve in Parkinson’s disease.
Sat, 10:40AM
Philosophy of Complexity (B)
A Re-Interpretation
of Double Bind from the Viewpoints of Sociology of Emotions and Group Dynamics
Tatsuya
Nomura, Hannan University, nomura@hannan-u.ac.jp
In
scientific research on emotions, phenomena on emotions has been considered to
be mental ones in individuals. Even in the traditional sociology, emotions have
actively not been dealt with because social phenomena and organizations have
been analyzed based on the assumption that important decision should rationally
be made. Thus, influence of societies and cultures in emotions has not
explicitly been dealt with. Recently, however, socilogy of emotions has augued
sociality of emotions based on a concept ``feeling rules'' defined as a set of
socially shared guidelines that direct how we want to try to feel and not to
feel emotions according to given situations. Based on this concept, several
sociological analysis for social phenomena such as problems on emotional
workers and a cultural trend in the modern societies have been done. In
addition, a sociologist suggests that the concept of ``double bind'' can be
explained from the viewpoint of feeling rules. This presentation gives a
re-interpretation of double bind from the viewpoints of the sociology of emotions
and group dynamics in social psychology. In partitular, we propose a
formalization of double bind situations based on feeling rules and the theory
of change of attitudes. In this formalilzation, double bind situations are
represented as stable states in group dynamics of attitudes between individuals
in families for inconsistent feeling rules.
Sat, 11:00AM
Clinical Psych and Phys (A)
Donald Rowe, University of Wollongong, drowe@physics.usyd.edu.au
This paper presents a framework for psychotherapeutic
practice and technique based on dynamical systems and chaos theory. The popular
therapeutic approaches such as CBT are found to be paradigmatic and follow a
linear sequence. Thereby, risking the loss of important interactions that occur
between the individual and his or her environment, how these factors change and
emerge over time, and how there is a sensitivity to initial conditions that
present crucial consideration during therapy. The paper addresses these
limitations through the theories discussed and in doing so, describes various
faces to the psychotherapeutic process, the development of neuroses, and
avenues for change. The individual is considered as a number of trajectories
within differing dimensionalities that depend on the level of detail or
description that we are looking at. Consideration of the individual as a
trajectory in a nonlinear system, and a number of initial condition is
discussed as being an essential component for successful intervention, as is
the understanding that the trajectory follows a chaotic pattern that may
manifest a variety of symptoms over time and place.
Sat, 11:00AM Philosophy of Complexity (B)
The
Non-Linearity of Scientific Description and
the Non-Probativity Theorem
Robert K. Logan, U. of Toronto, logan@physics.utoronto.ca
Scientific description is achieved by creating a linear
correspondence between the observables of nature and the metaphors or models
used to represent them. Scientists then performs linear mathematical and
logical operations on these metaphors to obtain new relationships among the
elements of the model which will hopefully match what is observed in nature.
This standard approach of scientific inquiry is premised on the notion that the
relationship between the elements of the model and the elements of reality are
linear. This assumption or basic presupposition can not be proven
mathematically but must be tested empirically and, in fact, is not always true,
especially if the mathematical equations are themselves non-linear. A small
difference between the mathematical model and the reality being modeled can
lead to vastly different outcomes, an effect known as the butterfly effect.
Another example of the non-linearity of scientific description and the reality
being described or modeled is demonstrated by the Science Non-Probativity Theorem.
There is a popular misconception that one can scientifically prove the truth of
a proposition. We show that this is not possible by proving the Science
Non-Probativity Theorem. The theorem is based on the axiom that for any
proposition to be considered the proper domain of science it must be tested,
and hence testable, i.e. it must be falsifiable. If a proposition must be
falsifiable to be considered by science then one can never prove it is true for
if one did then the proposition would no longer be falsifiable, having been
proven true, and, hence, could no longer be considered within the domain of
science. We have therefore proven that science can not prove the truth of a
proposition. It can only propose hypotheses and show that they are in agreement
with experiment and observations. The most that the scientist can do is to
claim that for every experiment or test performed so far, the hypothesis that
has been formulated explains all the observations made to date. Scientific
truth is always equivocal and dependent on the outcome of future observations,
discoveries and experiments. It is never absolute.
Sat, 11:20AM Clinical Psych and Phys (A)
Subluxation As A Social/Cultural
Imitation: Resolving A Phylobiological Epiphenomenon
Mark Filippi, addchiro@mindspring.com
Whether subluxation is considered from a biomechanical or
neurophysiological angle, it is still assumed to exist only on an ontosomatic
or individual level. Since it's primary manifestation concerns disruption of a
mental impulse, it follows that subluxation corrupts communication between an
organism and itself and its environment. The message in the modern era of media
points to a more discontinuous, non-linear relationship with the environment,
recasting subluxation as a species-shared, phylosomatic process. By
accelerating the pace of the communication, the datasphere achieves an
organization capable of triggering chaotic transformation, in effect, a virtual
adjustment. The implications on both a clinical chiropractic and
interdisciplinary research level are addressed and several applications are
explored.
Sat, 11:40AM Clinical Psych and Phys (A)
Memory Flowers: Nonlinear Dynamics in the
Use of Narrative to Alter Identity in the Treatment of Addiction
Linda Dennard, California State University, Hayward, Ldennard@aol.com
The Generations Project at the American Indian Family
Healing Center is a non-linear process of recovery from drug and alcohol
addiction. The process, however, ultimately makes drugs and alcohol only
symptoms as the focus becomes a broader personal transformation and the
development of personal identity and sustainability. Classic social service
assessment trains clients to revisit the worst moments of their lives and then
patterns service programs based on this script to which the residents
repeatedly (and often through two or more generations of family) adapt. The
result is that the identity attached to this low-point problem (victim, addict,
poor person) has expanded to become a major part of the culture and also has
become the controlling identity of the individual as well as the attractor of
the social service system. Memory Flowering breaks this pattern; creating
enough sensory dissonance to revive, expand and create memories from which
alternative personal identities can be generated as well as a more meaningful
life pattern than that emanating from the identity pattern of an addict. The
project also is meant to allow individuals to create meaning from their own
stories, rather than merely identify linear causes of symptomatic problems for
the ease of management. The paper cites several individual case studies from
the Project that track the use of non-linear process methods through treatment
planning and the effect the project has had on the social service/linear
disease model. The Generations Project draws AIFHC program residents into a
non-linear, non chronological narrative that allows the story-tellers to
develop a sense of their own history at the same time they break scripted
patterns of personal perception associated with over-identification with
certain sets of "problems." The approach reconnects the individuals
to their senses through memory exploration rather than engaging then in a cause
and effect or problem—solving analysis. Links are made between the development
of sensory memory and the development of fuller personal identities.
Sat, 1:00PM (C )
Symposium: Future Trajectories
Kevin Dooley, Arizona State University, kevin.dooley@asu.edu
The purpose of this special session is to identify the
key challenges that face SCTPLS researchers over the next few years. Complexity
and nonlinear dynamics are still relatively immature fields, and as researchers
it would be beneficial to work collectively on the few key problems that we
think will give us the most leverage in the near future. We will aggregate
people into small, working groups (by interest area) for the specific purpose
of brainstorming a list of topics, and then groups will discuss, prioritize,
and report their findings.
Sat, 1:00PM The Chaotic Brain (A)
The
Dreaming Brain: A Study in Chaos and
Self-Organization
Allan Combs, University of North Carolina at Asheville, combs@unca.edu
Stanley Krippner, Saybrook Graduate School
This paper examines the phenomenological aspects of
dreaming consciousness via an exploration of the self-organizing properties of
the dreaming brain. The approach permits a first reconciliation of the
historical breach between brain-based and psychological attempts to understand
dreaming. Here, the dreaming brain is seen as a complex chaotic-like
self-organizing system responsive to subtle influences such as residual
feelings and memories from waking life. The hypersensitivity of the brain
during dreaming is due to the amplification of subtle emotional and cognitive
signals by means of stochastic resonance working in combination with powerful
psychophysiological changes that occur in the brain during slow wave and
especially REM sleep. These include an active inhibition of extroceptive
stimulation, alterations in the brain’s dominant neuromodulatory systems, and during
REM sleep the bombardment of the visual cortex with bursts of PGO activity
along with increases in limbic system activity and reduced activity in the
prefrontal regions.
Sat, 1:00PM Sociology and Soc. Psych. (B)
Living
La Vida Loca: Examining Network Dynamics of Street
Drug Users in Three Cities
Scott Clair, Hispanic Health Council, scottc@hispanichealth.com
M. Singer, Hispanic Health Council; R. Heimer, Yale
University
J. Simmons, Hispanic Health Council
What happens when you examine the social network dynamics
of a group of people living "chaotic" lives in the layman's sense of
the word? The Diffusion of Benefits (DOB) Project among its other objectives
attempts to do exactly this in order to better understand HIV risk for the
participants. Specifically, DOB examines these participants and their social
networks across three different time points each separated by approximately 12
months. The aim of the current paper is to examine the differences in the ego
network information provided by participants at baseline and this first
follow-up period. This analysis will examine several questions including: what
percent of network members listed at time 1 are still listed at time 2? What
characteristics differentiate those participants that have more stable networks
and those that aren't? What are the main reasons given for why network members
are no longer in their networks? How stable are the network variables
themselves? How is the degree of network stability related (if at all) to risky
behavior? And how does this pattern differ across cities?
Sat, 1:20PM Sociology and Soc. Psych. (B)
Fractal Distribution of Human Settlement in
the United States
Roger Sambrook, Florida Atlantic University, sambrook@walt.ccs.fau.edu
Fractal dimension measurements are used to compare the
spatial distribution of human settlement in various states in the U.S. The
measurements are based on the distribution of pairwise distances between
settlements with population over 2500. The data used was geo-coded census data
from the USGS (Tiger) database. Two models of settlement pattern ( uniform
random and uniform lattice ) are then compared to actual states. Results
indicate a non-uniform clustering distribution of settlement in a number of
states, with real states having dimensions lower than those of the uniform
models (i.e. lower than 2). These findings are at variance with models based on
uniform spacing or uniform spacing with noise (such as models based on central
place theory) since such models produce "space filling" patterns,
with a fractal dimension of 2. The use of fractal measures for settlement
patterns may provide a useful test criteria for future models of settlement
behavior.
Sat, 1:20PM The Chaotic Brain (A)
Dynamical
Structures on the Edge of Chaos
in EEG Modelling
Donald Rowe, University of Sydney & Westmead Hospital, drowe@physics.usyd.edu.au
P. A. Robinson,
University of Sydney & Westmead Hospital
E. Gordon,
Westmead Hospital
A continuum
model of large-scale cortical electrical activity in the brain has been
developed using non-linear algorithms and neurophysiological parameters such as
axon conduction rates and cortico-thalamic loop gains (Rennie, Robinson, &
Wright, 1999), and this model has been successfully used to simulate large
scale cortical activity (Robinson, Rennie, Rowe, & Wright, 2000). Certain
properties of this model indicate an edge of chaos functioning. A property of
the brain thought to be essential for the manifestation of creativity and
diversification in the neural system. These non-linear properties are examined
in the context of neural communication and the generation of new states of
cognition in a potentially infinite kaleidoscope of variability and complexity.
These properties are both measured in human EEG wave forms and those generated
artificially from the model. Empirical findings and simulations indicate a
human brain operating on the edge of chaos.
Sat, 1:40PM
Sociology and Soc. Psych. (B)
Generational
Cycles in Mass Psychology:
A Case Study in Tipping Point Dynamics
Ted
Goertzel, Rutgers University, goertzel@crab.rutgers.edu
A number of
writers have observed generational cycles in culture and in politics, both in
the United States and in European societies. There appear to be periodic shifts
in the zeitgeist that some have characterized as a shift from "left"
to "right," others as an alteration between "introversion"
and "extroversion." These shifts seem to occur every twenty or
twenty-five years, although the most elaborate theory, that of William Strauss
and Neil Howe, describes four generational types which succeed each other over
an eighty year or ninety year period. Major historical events or turning points
apparently trigger these shifts, but generational theorists have not been able
to explain why these should occur approximately every twenty years.
Generational conflicts within families can be explained by the approximately
twenty to twenty-five year gap between biological generations, but births
within a society are continuous. The concept of a "tipping point" has
been applied to epidemics and phenomena where crossing a threshold leads to a
dramatic expansion in the growth rate of a phenomenon. This concept can also be
applied to cyclical dynamics in a system where incremental changes over a
period of years lead to increasing tension and susceptibility to triggering events.
Click
here for complete paper.
Sat, 1:40PM
The Chaotic Brain (A)
Two Types Of Memory-As-Process In A Dynamical
Networks’ View Of The Mind
Christine
Hardy, Laboratoire de Recherche sur les Interactions Psychophysiques
In a neural
nets framework, memory is embedded in specific network-configurations coding for
diverse solutions sometimes viewed as attractors. In Freeman’s dynamical model,
olfactory memory is the dynamical organization of multiple limit-cycle
attractors within the bulb’s meta-attractor–corresponding to specifc known
odorants. Semantic Fields theory proposes a dynamical-network model of the
mind, consisting of a network architecture organized by complex systems
dynamics. Essentially, the mind is a lattice of self-organized
dynamical-networks called semantic constellations (SeCos) that interweave
processes across organizational levels, instantiating multilevel interactions
within the whole mind-body-psyche system. It is proposed that such a
dynamical-network system embeds two types of dynamical memory. Short-term
memory is the current configuration and dynamical evolution of a cognitive
network through its state-space following trajectories unless novel
endo-/exo-context triggers a bifurcation of the system.
Sat, 2:00PM
Sociology and Soc. Psych. (B)
Chaos As Apocalypse:
Earthquake Imagery in San Francisco Funk Ar t
Tobi Zausner, tzausner@earthlink.net
Funk art,
which began in the San Francisco Bay Area in the late 1950’s, refers to the
humorous, offbeat, and unconventional work by artists such as Robert Arneson,
William Wiley, Roy de Forest, Joan Brown, Robert Hudson, Richard Shaw, and
Peter Saul. While the artists are not stylistically similar to each other, they
share an irreverent attitude towards society. But underneath their outrageous
sense of humor is unconscious iconography that suggests an impending
earthquake. Feared as an imminent apocalyptic seismic chaos, it has been too
frightening for the artists to confront directly and so manifests in their work
as unconscious symbolism only. They view the earthquake not as a regenerative
chaos bifurcating to a new order, but as a time of turbulence leading to
annihilation. A model for the trajectory of their psychological state is
suggested by a truncated cusp catastrophe and their anxieties are found to have
a self-similar fractal nature. Their creative tension and sensitivity show
analogies to Walter Freeman’s work with the activity of brain cells in response
to new stimuli. As individuals may repeat a trauma in an effort to manage the
stress, so artists in the face of trauma may incorporate it into their work.
Expressing anxieties through the painted image is a catharsis for the artist.
And fears confronted, even obliquely, bring strength into daily living.
Sat, 2:20PM
Group Psychology (A)
Ensembles with Variable Structure (EVS) in the
modeling of psychological phenomena
Irina
Trofimova, McMaster University, ira@ritchie.cas.mcmaster.ca
The
principles of the EVS approach are the modeling of multi-agent systems with 1)
a diversity of agents, 2) non-locality of connections between them and 3)
resource flow through the agent and through the system. Four main models were
developed within the EVS approach. The connection structure of these models was
studied as a function of two main parameters: sociability (the maximum number
of connections which an agent can hold active at a given time step) and
compatibility (a measure of the effectiveness of a connection in a population
of diverse agents). Variations in these parameter values resulted in the
appearance of stochastic phase transitions. The models illustrate the effect of
group dynamics on individual behavior.
Sat, 2:40PM
Sociology and Soc. Psych. (B)
Consciousness, Self-Organization, and the Holy
Grail
George
Williams, Federal Communications Commission, gwilliam@fcc.gov
I explore
the possibility that we are connected to a self-organizing field within
collective consciousness, which allows a kind of feedback between personal
desires or intentions and motivations to fulfill such needs. The notion of a
self-organizing collective consciousness is suggested by Carl Jung's concept of
synchronicity and perhaps by evidence that groups of meditators can lower the
crime rate in a particular area. I proceed by considering the simplest shapes
or structures that would allow such collective feedback. Given a number of
assumptions, I argue that such shapes and structures should be prominent in
symbols, myths, and rituals across various cultures. Next I examine the close
correspondence between these structures and such myths as the Holy Grail, the
Cornucopia, the Tree of Life, and the Fountain of Youth. Such myths and related
rituals, I argue, may stimulate and promote the self-organizing property of
collective consciousness.
Sat, 2:40PM
Group Pyschology (A)
A Nonlinear
Dynamical Systems Model of Interpersonal Interactions: A Grounded-Theory
Investigation
Ralph Waugh,
University of Texas, Austin, waugh@mail.utexas.edu
I will
discuss the development of a nonlinear dynamical system model of
moment-to-moment, adult dyadic interactions in significant, close
relationships. This model provides a theoretical framework that is based on a
systematic, grounded-theory investigation of previous research. I will trace
the progression of the model--based on the body of empirical evidence--from a
set of ideas, to a linear static model, then linear temporally-dynamic, and
finally, a nonlinear dynamical system model. This model addresses the
"face-to-face" interpersonal interactional processes as a complex
system, including verbal and nonverbal expressive behaviors as well as
unexpressed perceptions, cognitions, affects, and psychophysiology. The model
comprehends emergent, self-organizing properties and processes; sensitive
dependencies upon initial conditions; basins of attraction; threshold effects
and interactions among variables; stable, quasi-stable, and unstable patterns
of system behavior; and dynamic interplay between collective and constituent
variables during harmonious and discordant interactions. Some data also suggest
the presence of chaos markers in relation to particular system variables under
specific conditions. In addition, I will discuss the application of
grounded-theory research methodology for data collection, analysis,
theory/model formulation, testing, and validation of the model.
Sat, 2:40PM
Symposium: Future Trajectories-C
Trends in
the Use of Complexity
Theory, Computers as Tools for Social Science Researchers
Leslie Henrickson, UCLA, lhenrick@ucla.edu
A diffusion
analysis of the use of chaos and complexity theories in published literature
was conducted in four disciplines over the last twenty-five years. The
disciplines examined were: psychology, business, sociology and education.
Overall there was a marked pattern of use in the terms within the social
sciences. There was a differentiated use of the terms between disciplines as
well. A qualitative study on a subset from each discipline was generated to
create a disciplinary profile of the quantitative and qualitative use of the
terms in research activities. In the 1970's work began on the study of chaos
theory and chaotic systems. Chaos theory, a new science, was spawned that had
its own language, practices and tools. Chaos theory looks at non-linear dynamic
and complex systems that emerge from simple models. The technological change
has been the advent of high-speed computers. An integral part of traditional
science is the laboratory and controlled experiments, e.g. multibillion-dollar
particle accelerators. High-powered computers provide an alternative laboratory
setting in which complex systems can be modelled and analyzed without reduction
into simpler subsystems or avoidance of experimentation altogether because of
cost. Chaos theory cuts across disciplinary boundaries and its use has brought
together scientists from highly specialized fields who typically did not
communicate with one another. Theoretical physicists were the original chaos
theorists. Their research on chaos theory has brought the unit of analysis
closer to the human level of everyday activities and phenomenon. This means
that the language, practices and tools may have practical import for
researchers in the social sciences. Between disciplinary boundaries, diffusion
of technological innovation often proceeds from the natural sciences to the
social sciences. Generally, there is a time lag between an innovation's
introduction and its wide acceptance. A time lag of a desirable innovation can
be construed as inevitable. However, it should not be assumed that all
innovations are necessarily desirable in part or in whole. A critical
assessment as to the applicability of any theory or tool originating from the
natural sciences ought to engender within social scientists a healthy
scepticism legitimately based on historical precedence. This paper explores the
use of chaos theory in the social sciences, categories the uses and provides a
critical analysis of the use of chaos theory for the social sciences.
Sat, 3:00PM
Sociology and Soc. Psych. (B)
Oscillating
Regime as an
Attractor of Sustainable Development of Complex Systems
Alexandr
Tishchenko, Tver State University, alext@tversu.ru
Vjacheslav
E. Voitsekhovich, Tver State Univ
The main
direction of the future development of the nonlinear science is the
investigation of the steadiness of the evolution of the complex systems
(especially ecological and social systems). The most sharp problem of the
modern mankind evolution is globalization. Our main thesis is the regular
bothway movement globalization - regionalization is a necessary condition of
sustainable development. Modern globalization is based on world processes in
financial, industrial, social, political and informational spheres. Modern
regionalization is a trend of some civilization centres, countries, ethnoses,
communities to self-preservation, to self-identity. The rule of the golden mean
(Aristoteles, Hegel ...) recommends to avoid the extremes, to rise the
synthesis of the opposites. ´Pureª globalization and ´pureª regionalization are
the deadlocks of development. The self-organization, the regular oscillating
movement of mankind between globalization and regionalization is leading to a
sustainable development. Today monopole world and traditional polypole world
are not being created, but polylevelic and high-mobile, international and
interstate net is being created. Controlled oscillated self-organization will
promote universal globalization. It based on: a) new scientific paradigm, b)
philosophy and policy of nonviolence. ´Technogenicª civilization (XVI - XX c.)
is being changed into noospheric civilization (its elements are postindustrial
and informational societies). The noospheric teaching had been worked out by
V.I. Vernadsky and Teilhard de Charden. The old mechanic paradigm is being
changed by the new synergetic paradigm based on philosophical thesis The being
is fractals (one of the authors (professor V.E. Voitsekhovich) has worked out
the method of synergetic forecasting).
Sat, 3:00PM
Group Psychology
Fitness Trajectories in Evolution
Tim Perper, perpcorn@dca.net
In standard
biological evolutionary theory, fitness -- an organism's capacity to survive
and reproduce -- is forced by natural selection towards a single adaptive peak.
Here, I generalize the notion of fitness to include fitness obtained from the
organism's mate and from its social group. For the simplest case -- a
monogamously mated pair -- one obtains two recursive equations that can be
solved explicitly and that show how fitness changes over time as members of the
pair enhance each other's fitness, e.g., by feeding each other. By further
mathematical manipulation, one obtains explicit expressions for fitness when
environmental inputs vary with time, e.g., seasonal variation in food supplies.
Although these solutions apply quite widely, they do not apply when the
organism's activities alter the conditions of its own existence, e.g., when
human beings farm or store resources, or when an organism cooperates with its
social group to enhance its fitness (building irrigation systems is an example
in agrarian societies). By entering into social relations with others, the
members of the mated pair now create a feedback loop between themselves and the
biological environment that they and others have altered socially and
individually. Not only does feedback add a new level of complexity to an already
complex system, but it also creates the possibility that fitness trajectories
become chaotic. I will illustrate with a discussion of how family systems
respond to these levels of complexity.
Sat, 3:00PM Symposium: Future Trajectories--C
The Future of Chaos Theory:
From Revolution to Normal Science
Sean
Hagberg, Brown University, Sean_Hagberg_PhD@brown.edu
Chaos Theory
has rapidly emerged from anomaly to paradigm, and will soon take its place in normal
science. The routinization of chaos theory is described as a function of
science and the production of scientists. The author draws on two years of
ethnographic research on the training of quantitative social scientists and the
current state of chaos theory as science. Alternatives to the conversion of
chaos theory into normal science are described in detail.
Sat, 3:20PM
Group Psychology (A)
Dynamical
Theory of Creativity
Steve
Guastello, Marquette University, stephen.guastello@marquette.edu
This paper
presents an integration of theoretical and empirical studies on the cognitive
and social processes of creative problem solving. The dynamical theory builds
upon chance-configuration theory (Simonton, 1988) and currently features
several principles: chaotic flow of idea elements, channels of idea elements,
percolation of semantic lattices, self-organization of idea elements into
solutions to problems, positive feedback loops among problem solving group
participants. Control variables in the process include individual differences
in personality,openness of the group to random shocks from the outside,
person-topic combinations, and the use of the facilitative leadership
style.Empirically tested aspects of the theory have been based on the method of
structural equations with experimental or field data. Future reasearch needs to
address the methods of percolation within the semantic lattices themselves.
Sat, 3:20PM
Sociology and Soc. Psych. (B)
Evolutionary Democracy: The Process of Liberation
Linda
Dennard, California State University, Hayward, Ldennard@aol.Com
The paper is
a theoretical study of democracy as the embodiment of a evolutionary life
process rather than as a mere ideology. Using lessons from the study of
non-linear dynamics and self-organizing systems, it maps an argument for
democracy being the articulation of life processes and links justice, equality
and the urge to freedom to the movement of self-organized systems and the urge
to creativity. Democracy, it argues, exists in the ordinary lives of citizens
and their relationships with one another, however chaotic, rather than in the
more scripted, regulated, and commodified patterns of government. The paper
draws insights from traditional forms of governance in the Native American
community which share principles of complexity theories.
Sat, 3:40PM
Sociology and Soc. Psych. (B)
Chaos Theory and
Dialectical Materialism
Kan Lu
The chaos
theory and the dialectical materialism discussed interrelated. 1. From history
of philosophy, history of physics and history of neuroscience, and the present
status of dialectical meterialism discuss their interrelations. 2. The
complexity of human behaivor, group pschyology and the complexity of the
polictical language or concepts. 3. The complexity of Freeman’s BRAIN SOCIETY
and the complexity of set theory in relation to the divergence in expression of
the truth accepted is the basics of so called dialectical meterialism. 4. F.
Engels ‘s DILALECTICS OF NATURE reviewed in the eyes of modern CHAOSISTS. 5.
Cognition confusion and the bloody history of tragedies must be avoided by the
developments of chaos theory in political sciences. The realistic problems may
be occured in these aspects. 6. A new dialectical materialism ?
Sat, 3:40PM
Group Psychology (A)
Life at the
Edge: Complicators
and Simplifiers in Human Transactions
James Brody,
Behavior OnLine, jbrody@compuserve.com
"Existence
at the edge of chaos" applies broadly in biology and physics and supplies
a platform for Darwinian natural and sexual selection. However, it also
characterizes small group, human interactions. The concept of a phase
transition applies to human social behavior, to our strategies of selfishness
and cooperation, and to our neuropsychological executive functions. A human
developmental course is sketched for males and females, a course stabilized by
genes, family organization, and culture. The concepts of "simplify"
and "complicate" apply to human emotional responses and therapeutic
interventions. Clinical and cross cultural studies are used to illustrate these
points.
Sat, 4:00PM
Sociology and Soc. Psych. (B)
A Nonlinear
Model of HIV Evolution
Daniele
Cetrullo, dan_cetrullo@excite.com
The main
topic of the paper will be the design of a nonlinear model for the
predictability of the HIV evolution. The aim of the model is to accept or
reject the hypothesis of a possible future trajectory of studies to fight
against mutations of HIV.
Sat, 4:00PM
Clinical Psych and Phys-2 (A)
Modeling the Delay Effect of Human Decisions
and Actions: Chaotic Attractors and Related Simulations
C.H. Skiadas,
Technical University of Crete, skiadas@ermes.tuc.gr
Apostolou,
Technical University of Crete
Human
decisions and actions involve an awareness stage period and frequently a
considerable amount of time is needed from the first communication period until
final decisions
and then
actions take place. On modeling the process of human decisions and actions a
time -delay period appear that is introduced by a delay parameter. The impact
of this parameter to various delay models expressed by differential of
difference equations is presented and attractors and chaotic dynamics are
simulated. The results verify the large variety expected in the human social
activities when time-delay is present. Delay causes oscillations and later
chaotic oscillations, large or small cycles in social or economic behavior.
Even in the very simple cases limit cycles, oscillations and chaos appear.
Human life phenomena are characterized by non- linearity and chaos as a rule
and not as an exception and the delay effect plays a very critical role.
Sat, 4:20PM
Sociology and Soc. Psych. (B)
Dynamic Models
Of Social Mentality
Transformations
Olga Mitina,
Moscow State University by Lomonosov, omitina@yahoo.com
(presented
by) Fred Abraham, Blueberry Brain Institute
The model
offered in the given work, is connected with the construction of phase
trajectories in phase space. Psychosemantic techniques allow to build
"step by step" pictures of consciousness regarded as phase
projections of the uniform phase space along the axix of time. Then with the
help of multiple linear regression methods we obtain the system of linear
different equations describing experimental data and reflecting the dependence
of objects on a phase plane from each other at the consecutive moments of time.
The solution of these simultaneous independent linear differential equations
provides the phase trajectory of the investigated dynamic process. We are going
to illustrate this methodology by two examples from political psychology and
one from psychology of gender. In the first case we used the data describing
the dynamics of the attitudes of certain layers of Russian society to the
country’s economic and political realities during the calmest period of
existence of new Russia since the time of time of reorganization and the
beginning of reforms (from 1994 till 1997) and then after deep system’s crisis
of 1998 till 1999 year. The interpretation of the obtained phase curve as a
process of transformation in social - political representations in the
consciousness of the certain stratum of Russian citizens is suggested. In the
second example the model was created on the basis of the outcomes two empirical
psychosemantic studies (in 1993 and in 1998) of perception of different
countries by Russian citizens. The gender research reflects the conception of
Russian people about dynamic women’s stereotype during the time.
Sat, 4:20PM
Clinical Psych and Phys-2 (A)
Non-Linear
Dynamics And The Biological Basis Of Neglect And Attachment Behaviors
Susan Mirow,
University of Utah, SusanMirow@aol.com
In humans
(mammals), the biological basis for understanding neglect must start with its
opposite: attachment behavior and pursuit of social engagement.. This paper
uses the literature on attachment and neglect and "percolates it
through" that of non-linear science. Methods derived from non-linear
dynamics provide descriptions of patterns that evolve in time of biological
systems driven by themselves and their environment, such as those involved in
attachment processes. Attachment begins as a thermal, tactile and olfactory
system., whose bi-directional circuits are iterated between mother and neonate.
Attachment behavior may be understood as mother/child coupling (entrainment) of
specific ultradian: (less than 24 hour) rhythms. For example, the neonatal
ultradian rest/activity rhythm is coupled to the mother's circadian cycle, and
neonatal hormone release is entrained to the mother's rhythmic touch.
Conversely, when social engagement is interrupted, a neonatal mammal perceives
social absence, and it vocalizes separation distress. This results in an
immediate and persistent response of the Hypothalamic Pituitary Adrenal (HPA)
Axis within the neonate. Long-lasting changes within the HPA Axis may then be
understood as adaptation of the neonate to the new conditions. If mother
doesn't return, the entrainment of ultradian rhythms evolve into a pattern we
recognize as "neglect". The brain's regulatory systems mature during
neonatal development and are experience-dependent . Their "sensitivity to
initial conditions" can lead to widely divergent response patterns to
stress. In conclusion, the success or failure of early attachment processes may
have long lasting behavioral effects, in accordance with the principles of
non-linear dynamics.
Sat, 4:40PM
Clinical Psych and Phys-2 (A)
Non-Linear Dynamics And
Psychological Trauma
Susan Mirow,
University of Utah, SusanMirow@aol.com
Psychological
trauma alters perception. For example, a crime victim may see only the barrel
of a gun pointed at him and not the face of the man holding the gun, although
that too, is directly in his field of view. A thoughtful, fully contextualized
response relies upon the integration of a complex hierarchical organization of
percepts within the brain. Trauma inhibits the emergence of organizational
complexity at every stage of human development. Developmental complexity, as
well as its loss due to trauma, can be measured through study of a person's
short (duration less than 24 hours) biological rhythms, called Ultradian
Rhythms. Ultradian rhythms are endogenous biological oscillations, found in all
living things. They are present within and between cells and organs, and
between and among people. These rhythmic oscillations self-organize during
human development, coupling (entraining) to eachother and to the environment.
Their timed interactions are responsible for organizational complexity of
synchronized functions found within biological systems. The continual
interactions of ultradian rhythms with each other "show them to be
exquisitely sensitive to small (but extremely functionally relevant) aspects of
their environment, as well as to each other's relative energies and
perturbations." They form constantly changing patterns, whose overall
shapes, moving through time, are fractal. Non linear dynamics "gives us
both a mathematical and conceptual way to understand the processes
involved." Referencing literature on psychological trauma and biological
rhythms, this paper discusses the usefulness of non-linear dynamics in
providing new insights into the diagnosis and treatment of psychological
trauma.