Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and Life Sciences, Vol. 11, Iss. 2, April, 2007, pp. 253-265
@2007 Society for Chaos Theory in Psychology & Life Sciences

 
 
 

Transition of Chaotic Motion to a Limit Cycle by Intervention of Economic Policy: An Empirical Analysis in Agriculture

Kenshi Sakai, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology
Shunsuke Managi, Yokohama National University
Nikolay K. Vitanov, Max Planck Institute for Physics of Complex Systems, and Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
Katsuhiko Demura, Hokkaido University

Abstract: This paper investigates the transition of dynamics observed in an actual real agricultural economic dataset. Lyapunov spectrum analysis is conducted on the data to distinguish deterministic chaos and the limit cycle. Chaotic and periodic oscillation were identified before and after the second oil crisis, respectively. The statitonarity of the time series is investigated using recurrence plots. This shows that government intervention might reduce market instability by removing a chaotic market”s long-term unpredictability.

Keywords: chaos, nonlinear dynamics, recurrence plots, agricultural market